Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to identify which temperature band will contain the highest reading at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 20 August 2026, with settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The 0% implied probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or genuine uncertainty about which range will be hit.

Chongqing's August climate is characterised by sustained heat and humidity. Historical data shows daily highs in mid-August typically range between 32–36°C, with occasional peaks above 37°C during particularly intense heat waves. The city experienced a 40.3°C reading in August 2022 and regularly sees temperatures exceed 35°C throughout the month. The current crowd probability of zero suggests either the market has settled on a dominant outcome already, or the range options themselves may be skewed in a way that makes one outcome appear certain whilst others appear implausible.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather patterns as August 2026 approaches, particularly any forecasts indicating anomalous heat or cooler-than-normal conditions across central China. The resolution methodology—specifically the reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary highs—creates a technical dependency worth noting. Any discrepancies between different weather reporting sources could affect settlement interpretation. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the event date, which may create timing considerations for traders in different time zones attempting to verify readings before final resolution.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.