Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

At the airport station in Chongqing, the market is pricing a **0% YES** on a day when the real-world baseline is still a summer heat event rather than a cold anomaly. That makes the favourite the *No* side by a wide margin, with the only plausible value angle in a contrarian view that the station’s actual maximum could land a little higher than the crowd expects if the afternoon heat builds cleanly under broken cloud.

The historical frame is straightforward: Chongqing is one of China’s hottest major cities in August, with long-run daily highs around **34–35°C** and many guides describing the month as very hot and humid.[1][13][15] For 4 August specifically, one historical weather guide shows an average high of **34.6°C** for that date, while airport-focused August forecasts cluster daily highs mostly in the **low to mid-30s Celsius** and can push into the upper 30s on hotter runs.[1][6] That makes a zero-implied YES probability look like a strong underdog price if the market is asking whether the day’s top reading will simply fall into a typical late-summer range rather than some unusually cool band.

What matters now is the intraday setup at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport: cloud cover, rainfall timing, and whether convection holds the temperature down around the mid-afternoon peak. Recent forecast snapshots have shown **patchy rain possible** or clear-to-hot conditions for early August, with airport highs in the mid-30s °C and only modest overnight relief.[3][6][12] If rain arrives early or persists through the heating window, the upside case weakens; if the morning clears and winds stay light, the station can still post a solid max. The consensus is firmly on a warm but not extreme August day, which leaves any value in the market on the underdog side only if the settlement bands sit above the crowd’s implied outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.