Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26?

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Market context

On 26 June 2026, the real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport, a metric that historically defies the current crowd-implied 0% probability for a high-temperature outcome. Chongqing’s hot season begins around 20 June, with average daily highs exceeding 85°F, and the city has earned its reputation as one of China’s hottest locales by recording 149 days above 40°C since 1951[5]. Recent June data from the Sichuan Basin shows subtropical high-pressure ridges pushing peak temperatures toward 31°C or 32°C, contradicting any consensus that extreme heat is impossible[2]. The underdog here is the cool-temperature range, yet value likely sits contrarian in the high-temperature bracket where the crowd has erroneously priced in zero chance.

Traders must monitor the subtropical ridge’s position and any scheduled meteorological announcements that could amplify heat dependency, as these factors directly influence the resolution source from Wunderground. While no specific 2026 forecast is available, historical patterns indicate that daytime averages hover near 28.7°C with peaks reaching 43°C, suggesting the current probability is a mispricing of seasonal norms[6]. The favourite remains the high-temperature outcome, and the value spot lies in betting against the 0% consensus, particularly if ridge activity intensifies as it did in late June 2022 when temperatures hit 43.2°C[8]. This handicapper’s note flags the high-temperature range as the only logical play given the historical weight of Chongqing’s summer extremes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.