Highest temperature in Dallas on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the **highest recorded temperature in Dallas on 6 August 2026**, measured at Dallas Love Field, and the market is effectively pricing that it lands in the **100–101°F** band; with the crowd at **0% YES** on the opposing proposition, the consensus is firmly against a cooler outcome. On Polymarket, the 100–101°F range is the clear favourite at about **66% implied probability**, while **98–99°F** is the main underdog at roughly **32%**, leaving the rest of the ladder as tail risk rather than a live consensus path.[1]

For handicappers, this looks like a fairly standard late-summer Dallas temperature set-up: the favourite is a single-degree band near triple digits, but the value question is whether the day peaks just under that threshold or overshoots into a higher band. Recent daily forecast material for Dallas showed highs around the mid-90s to low-100s in early August, which is consistent with a tight distribution clustered around the market’s top two bins rather than a broad spread.[2][7] In comparable Dallas heat regimes, the key read is often not whether it is hot, but whether the maximum sneaks above a round-number shelf like 100°F.

The main catalysts to watch are the **observed hourly readings** at Dallas Love Field and any late-day cloud cover, thunderstorms, or smoke/haze that could trim the afternoon peak; once the sun is up, small weather changes can still move the top reading by a degree or two. The market’s own rules matter here too: resolution depends on the **Weather Underground Daily Observations** table, not the summary high/low box, so traders should focus on the actual station observation series rather than the headline display.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.