Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field’s recorded high for 9 August is the key number here, and the crowd is treating the market as a near-certain **favourite** at 0% YES implied probability, which leaves no obvious consensus disagreement on the directional call. That sort of pricing usually means traders expect the day’s maximum to land in the most obvious late-summer band, with the market already behaving like a settled result rather than a live weather bet. Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table is the resolution source, so the only real risk is a late update that changes the official peak after the first reading for the following date is published.[8][3]

For framing, Dallas in August commonly prints very warm afternoons, and recent comparable Dallas weather references show highs around 99°F to 100°F for 9 August, with AccuWeather showing 100° for the date and Weather Underground’s Dallas history page already indicating a hot day in the mid-to-upper 90s by evening.[2][1][9] That makes the current 0% YES line look like an **underdog** only in a technical sense; the value case is not in a surprise extreme, but in whether the market has underweighted the possibility of a one-degree revision in the official observation record. Contrarian interest would sit in the narrow temperature bands that capture an official max just below or above the consensus cluster, rather than in an outright cool-day outcome.[3][8]

The trader watchlist is simple: the final Daily Observations entry from Weather Underground, any post-midnight revisions, and the timestamp of the first datapoint for 10 August, because the market’s rules freeze changes once that next-day data appears.[8] In practical terms, there are no major scheduled catalysts left; this is a data-validation market now, not a forecast market. If the Weather Underground record and other local weather summaries diverge, the Daily Observations table controls, which is where late-value angles and false certainty can show up.[8][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

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