Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field is set to record its peak heat for 12 July 2026, with the market betting on whether temperatures will breach specific Fahrenheit thresholds. The crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the YES outcome, suggesting consensus that the day will remain within a lower, cooler band. Historically, mid-July in Dallas is brutal; the National Weather Service cites a normal maximum of 96.9°F for the month, while extreme records show highs hitting 108°F on 12 July 1998 [5][6]. This 1998 outlier provides a critical contrarian angle: if the market assumes a standard 96–97°F day, it may be undervaluing the risk of a repeat heat spike, creating potential value for the contrarian trader willing to bet against the 0% pricing.

Traders must monitor the immediate forecast trajectory and any sudden shifts in regional humidity or wind patterns, as these are the primary catalysts for temperature deviations. AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast for the station predicts daily highs ranging between 96°F and 102°F, indicating that a breach of the upper range is meteorologically plausible rather than impossible [1]. The settlement relies strictly on Wunderground data for the Dallas Love Field Station, meaning real-time updates from that specific source will dictate the final resolution [10]. With the settlement window closing on 12 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, the focus remains on whether the day aligns with the 96°F average or spikes toward the 102°F upper forecast limit, a divergence that could render the current 0% probability a significant mispricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.