Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Dallas Love Field Station will record its highest temperature on 13 July 2026, with the market currently pricing all outcome ranges at zero probability—a technical artifact suggesting insufficient liquidity or an incomplete market setup rather than genuine certainty about the day's weather. Resolution depends on historical temperature data from Wunderground's archives for that specific date and location.

Dallas typically experiences peak summer heat in mid-July, with average highs around 95°F and historical records frequently exceeding 100°F during this period. The city's hottest Julys have seen temperatures reach 106–107°F, though such extremes remain outliers. July 13 specifically has seen highs ranging from 89°F to 104°F across recent decades, placing it squarely within the typical summer range rather than an anomalous date. The current zero-probability pricing suggests the market may not have attracted sufficient trader interest to establish meaningful odds across temperature bands.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts as July 2026 approaches, particularly atmospheric pressure patterns and any developing heat domes across the southern United States. The National Weather Service typically refines its extended outlooks 10–14 days before the target date, providing the clearest signal for whether conditions will favour above-average or below-average temperatures. Any significant drought conditions or unusual jet-stream positioning in the weeks preceding mid-July could shift expectations materially. Until the market develops actual trading activity, the zero-probability display masks where genuine value might exist across the temperature ranges.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.