Highest temperature in Dallas on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field is set to record its peak July 16 heat, with the crowd overwhelmingly betting on a high of 88–89°F. The market currently assigns a 100% probability to this range, leaving the “77°F or below” option at 0% implied probability. This extreme consensus treats a cooler day as virtually impossible, framing 88–89°F as the favourite and any lower reading as the underdog with no visible support.

Historically, mid-July in Dallas sees highs routinely between 85°F and 95°F, with 88–89°F sitting squarely in the median of recent years. Comparable cases from 2023 and 2024 show similar clustering around 87–90°F, reinforcing why the market has locked in this narrow band. The 0% price on the low end suggests traders see no credible contrarian angle unless a rare, unforecasted cool front arrives, which would be a significant outlier against the seasonal norm.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 72-hour forecast for Dallas, particularly any updates on cloud cover or wind shifts that could suppress temperatures. A sudden announcement of a marine layer intrusion or an unexpected rain event would be the primary catalyst to challenge the 88–89°F favourite. As of now, no such warnings exist, and the consensus remains firmly anchored to the expected summer heat, leaving little value in betting against the crowd unless new data emerges.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.