Highest temperature in Dallas on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world question is how hot Dallas Love Field gets on 22 July, with the market settling on the day’s peak temperature in Fahrenheit. The crowd is showing **0% implied probability** for YES on the current framing, while the market snapshot also points to **108–109°F** as the outright frontrunner, so the consensus is firmly skewed to a very hot outcome rather than a mild one.[1]

For handicappers, that makes the favourite the upper-temperature bins and the underdog the cooler ranges. The useful comparison is July’s baseline: Dallas is typically deep in peak-summer heat, and even weather travel data suggests tropical-storm interference is rare in the month, so the lower bins usually need a genuine pattern break to clear.[2] The value question is whether the market is overcommitting to the very top end; the source notes model consensus around **104–105°F** with some upside risk to **106–107°F**, which implies that the middle-upper bins may offer better value than the most extreme reading if the ridge is slightly weaker than forecast.[1]

The main catalysts are the day-of synoptic setup over north Texas, especially the strength and placement of the upper-level ridge, low-level wind direction, cloud cover and any late convection nearby that could cap the high. Traders should watch the final NWS and AccuWeather updates referenced in the market commentary, because small shifts in steering flow can move Dallas from the low 100s into the mid-100s or, if clouds or storms intrude, trim the top-end outcome enough to matter for bin selection.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on July 22? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.