Highest temperature in Dallas on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Dallas Love Field Station will record a peak temperature on 27 July 2026, with traders currently assigning zero probability to any outcome materialising. This represents an extreme consensus position that warrants scrutiny, given that Dallas experiences measurable daily highs on virtually every day of the year, including mid-summer dates when temperatures routinely exceed 95°F.

Historical July data from Dallas Love Field shows consistent patterns: the station has recorded temperatures between 95–100°F on most days in late July across the past three decades, with occasional readings exceeding 100°F during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either a technical misunderstanding of the market mechanics or an assumption that the settlement window closure will prevent resolution—yet the window extends through 12:00 UTC on the resolution date itself, allowing sufficient time for historical data to be recorded and verified on Wunderground. Comparable July 27 dates show high temperatures in the 96–99°F range as modal outcomes, making any temperature range in the 90s–100s bracket a statistical baseline expectation rather than an outlier.

The National Weather Service forecast for north Texas in late July 2026 remains unavailable until closer to the date, but seasonal patterns and the absence of any announced weather anomalies suggest normal summer conditions will prevail. Traders should monitor early-July heat patterns and any atmospheric setup changes that might signal an unusual cold snap—an event so rare in Dallas during this period that it would genuinely justify extreme probability assignments. The current 0% reading appears misaligned with meteorological precedent.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.