Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime heat at Dallas Love Field on 28 June 2026, a date historically prone to extreme summer temperatures. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the highest temperature falling into the lowest range, reflecting a consensus that conditions will be far warmer. The market heavily favours outcomes in the 94–100°F bracket, with the underdog being any reading below 90°F, which traders view as virtually impossible given the seasonal baseline.

Historical records frame this probability starkly: the all-time high for Dallas on 28 June is 110°F, recorded in 1980 during a notorious heatwave that saw temperatures reach 113°F across the region [5][7]. Recent forecasts for late June 2026 predict daily highs between 96°F and 100°F, with overnight lows staying above 77°F, reinforcing the expectation of sustained heat [4]. Comparable cases from the 1980 summer show that when such heatwaves strike, the lowest temperature ranges are completely bypassed, validating the 0% implied probability for cool outcomes.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the official highest temperature, as the market resolves solely on this data point [2]. A key catalyst is the ongoing heatwave affecting South Texas, which may push temperatures toward record levels if conditions persist [9]. While no specific announcements are required, the dependency on clear skies and high-pressure systems means any sudden shift in wind patterns or precipitation could alter the outcome, though current forecasts suggest sunny conditions with minimal rain chance [2]. The value spot lies in contrarian angles only if unexpected cloud cover emerges, but consensus remains firmly on high heat.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.