Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s highest temperature on 10 August is trading as a clear **underdog-to-favourite** for the upper-30s, but the market’s current **0% YES** implies the crowd is effectively pricing that outcome as impossible. That looks extreme against the city’s August climatology: Guangzhou commonly posts daytime highs around **33–34°C**, with a meaningful tail into **35–36°C** and occasional hotter spikes, while one forecast source has already shown a **36°C** daytime high for 10 August[1][6][13][18]. For a thermometer-based market tied to Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, the key question is not the broad monthly average but whether the airport station gets a short-lived heat peak above the low 30s before cloud, rain, or sea-breeze effects cap the reading[14][17].

Historically, Guangzhou’s August profile is hot, humid and rain-prone, which makes **35°C+** plausible but not routine, and keeps **36–37°C** as a credible contrarian angle rather than a base case[1][6][9][19]. On a handicapper’s read, the consensus should sit around the mid-30s band, with value likely on a modestly higher bucket if the day stays bright and convective rain arrives late; the favourite remains a reading in the **33–35°C** range, while the underdog is a clean break into the high-30s. The present 0% implies little or no market attention to upside heat risk, so any live forecast drift warmer would matter disproportionately.

Traders should watch the latest **Guangzhou Baiyun Airport** forecast updates, especially changes in cloud cover, rainfall timing, and any shift in maximum temperature guidance from weather services such as AccuWeather and Trip.com, which already point to a very warm day[2][10][15][18]. Because settlement uses the **Daily Observations** table rather than the summary high/low, the decisive catalyst will be the observed hourly sequence at the station, not the headline forecast figure[14][17]. That means the value spot is not just “how hot is it forecast to be?”, but whether the peak arrives before showers or thick cloud suppress the day’s actual maximum.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

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