Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 August 2026, Guangzhou will record a daily maximum temperature at Baiyun International Airport Station, with the market asking whether it will fall into a specific range. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to the YES outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in an alternative range or insufficient liquidity to establish a baseline view.

Guangzhou's August climate sits firmly within its hottest season, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 32–35°C during mid-month. The city's 30-year August average high stands near 33°C, though individual days regularly exceed 35°C during heat waves. The 0% implied probability indicates the market has either priced the target range as implausibly narrow or positioned consensus heavily toward cooler or warmer alternatives. Given Guangzhou's consistency in August temperatures, the absence of any probability mass warrants scrutiny—particularly if the range in question spans even 2–3 degrees Celsius, which would capture a substantial portion of historical outcomes.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for regional temperature bands. Tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during mid-August can suppress temperatures by 2–4°C through cloud cover and precipitation, though such systems remain difficult to predict beyond a week. The resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table from Baiyun station specifically, not summary figures, making data source verification critical before settlement.

Methodology

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