Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 10 July 2026, a date historically prone to intense heat under the East Asian monsoon. While the crowd-implied probability for a 36°C outcome sits at 0%, framing this as the favourite underdog dynamic reveals a stark contrarian angle. Historical July averages hover near 32°C, yet daily highs frequently climb to 34–37°C, with the highest average peak reaching 32–33°C but often exceeding 35°C during record-breaking heatwaves [1][2][8]. Recent data confirms China experienced its hottest July on record, suggesting the consensus that 36°C is improbable may be undervaluing the tail risk of extreme thermal anomalies [4].

Traders must monitor short-range ensemble forecasts for peak uncertainty, as typical monsoon conditions create volatile daytime temperature swings that standard models struggle to pin down [1][9]. The primary catalyst is the release of updated Wunderground data for the preceding day, which will refine the settlement probability before the 2026-07-10T12:00:00Z window closes. Given the modest ensemble spreads two days out, the value spot likely sits against the 0% consensus, where the market fails to price in the frequency of 36°C+ days in Guangzhou’s July climatology [8][9]. This is a classic handicapper’s note: the underdog (36°C) offers value where the favourite (lower ranges) is overbet by the crowd’s misplaced certainty.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.