Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Guangzhou on 27 June 2026 faces a near-certain clash between extreme subtropical heat and heavy monsoon rainfall, with the crowd-implied probability of a high-temperature outcome sitting at 0% YES. Historically, June in Guangzhou is one of the wettest months, averaging 280 mm of rainfall and featuring frequent thunderstorms that suppress peak temperatures, even as the subtropical high-pressure system drives intense humidity [1]. While the all-time June record reached 36.6°C, recent years show that heavy rain and thunderstorms typically cap daily highs around 31°C, making the current 0% consensus logically sound for a high-temperature settlement [2].

The critical catalyst for traders is the immediate weather schedule: forecast models predict a thunderstorm with heavy rain for 27 June, which will almost certainly prevent temperatures from climbing into the upper ranges required for a YES outcome [2]. Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or storm intensity that might alter the thermal profile [6]. With May 2026 already recorded as the hottest in history due to continuous sunny days reaching 36.3°C, the abrupt shift to heavy rain in June represents a stark contrarian value spot where the market correctly prices in the cooling effect of the monsoon [4]. The consensus is firmly on the underdog (low temperature), and no value exists in betting against the storm.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.