Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, Hong Kong will face its peak summer heat, with the Hong Kong Observatory recording the absolute daily maximum temperature that determines the outcome of this prediction market. The crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome sits at 0%, reflecting a consensus that the temperature will not reach the specified threshold, likely due to expectations of typical monsoon-driven variability or cloud cover suppressing extreme highs.

Historically, July is Hong Kong’s hottest month, with an average high of 89°F (31.7°C) and record peaks exceeding 32.9°C in 2007[2][3]. While recent years show volatility—such as the 25.4°C low on 1 July 2022 due to rain[9]—the 2026 forecast projects daily highs between 85°F and 93°F (29.4°C–33.9°C)[4]. The 0% probability suggests the market underestimates the chance of a contrarian heat spike, especially if monsoon rains fail to materialise, creating a potential value spot for those betting on an underdog heat event.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily weather summaries and the “Daily Extract” for real-time temperature data, as resolution depends entirely on this finalized source[1][5]. Recent reports highlight that July 2023 was the city’s hottest month on record, with unprecedented hot nights and days since 1884[8]. Any shift in forecast models indicating reduced rainfall or increased solar radiation could signal a contrarian angle, making the 0% implied probability a notable mispricing if conditions align with historical extremes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.