Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in degrees Celsius on 11 June 2026, with settlement determined by the absolute daily maximum figure published in their Daily Extract climate data. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are highly predictable within narrow bounds. Historical data shows the territory's daily maxima in early June cluster between 29°C and 33°C, with 31°C representing the median for this period. Extreme outliers—temperatures below 28°C or above 35°C—occur in fewer than 5% of June days across the past three decades. The 0% implied probability reflects the market's nascent state rather than genuine forecasting consensus; once traders begin positioning, the distribution should concentrate around the 30–32°C range where climatological precedent sits heaviest.

Catalysts for this market remain limited until late May 2026, when seasonal weather patterns become clearer. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries and seasonal outlooks that traders should monitor; any advisory suggesting an anomalously hot or cool June would shift expectations. Tropical cyclone activity, whilst rare in early June, could suppress temperatures if a system approaches the region. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 11 June, giving traders only hours after the Observatory's morning temperature reading to adjust final positions. Data publication typically occurs within 48 hours of the observation date, meaning resolution will likely occur in mid-June once the Daily Extract is finalised.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.