Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in degrees Celsius on 13 June 2026, with settlement determined by the absolute daily maximum figure published in their Daily Extract climate data. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either incomplete market formation or uncertainty about which temperature band will materialise on that specific date.

Hong Kong's June temperatures sit firmly in the early monsoon season, when the territory typically experiences warm, humid conditions ahead of the peak summer heat. Historical data from the Observatory shows June daily maxima cluster between 29°C and 32°C, with occasional excursions above 33°C during particularly intense heat episodes. The 13th falls mid-month, when the southwest monsoon has usually established itself, moderating extreme heat relative to July and August. Comparable years show considerable day-to-day variation; the difference between a typical June day and an outlier can span 4–5°C depending on wind patterns and cloud cover.

Traders should monitor the seasonal weather patterns developing through May and early June 2026, particularly any anomalies in the southwest monsoon's timing or intensity. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries and seasonal outlooks that provide early signals about temperature trajectories. Tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific, though less common in June, can suppress temperatures through cloud and rain, whilst delayed monsoon onset occasionally permits heatwave conditions. Settlement hinges entirely on Observatory data publication; any delays in their Daily Extract release would postpone resolution beyond the nominal window.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.