Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature on 14 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This market settles on that single daily maximum reading, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome—an unusual position suggesting either insufficient liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will materialise.

Hong Kong's June weather sits firmly in the early monsoon season, with historical daily maxima typically ranging from 29°C to 33°C. The Observatory's records show that 14 June has seen highs between 30.5°C and 33.8°C across recent decades, with the most common outcomes clustering around 31–32°C. The 0% crowd probability reflects no consensus on specific temperature ranges rather than a genuine belief that no temperature will be recorded. Comparable early-June days in Hong Kong rarely exceed 34°C unless a heat dome or unusual atmospheric pattern develops; conversely, readings below 29°C are uncommon unless a trough or tropical system disrupts typical conditions.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early June 2026, as these remain the primary catalysts for temperature deviation. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes extended outlooks roughly two weeks ahead, which will provide the first concrete guidance on whether June 14 tracks toward typical monsoon warmth or anomalous conditions. Settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's official daily extract publication, meaning no resolution occurs until their data is finalised and publicly available.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

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FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

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