Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in degrees Celsius on 9 June 2026, with the market settling to whichever range bracket contains that single daily maximum reading. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either incomplete market formation or uncertainty about which temperature bands are in play.

Hong Kong's June climate sits firmly in the pre-monsoon transition period, typically characterised by warm, humid conditions with occasional heat spikes. Historical data from the Observatory shows June daily maxima generally range between 28°C and 34°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 35°C or above during particularly intense heat episodes. The 0% implied probability across all brackets suggests traders are either waiting for the market to clarify available ranges or treating this as a placeholder until settlement windows near. June 2026 falls outside current seasonal forecasting windows, making historical June patterns the primary reference point rather than specific meteorological predictions.

The settlement depends entirely on the Hong Kong Observatory's published daily extract data, which typically becomes available within days of the observation date. No interim catalysts—weather warnings, heat alerts, or forecaster commentary—will resolve the market before 9 June itself arrives. Traders should note that the Observatory's "Absolute Daily Max" measurement is precise to one decimal place, meaning the actual recorded figure will determine which bracket contains the outcome. The current zero-probability state across all options suggests the market awaits either additional liquidity or clarification of the temperature ranges offered before meaningful trading activity emerges.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.