Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 25?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 25 May 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. The market currently implies 0% probability across all temperature bands, reflecting the absence of historical data or forecasting consensus this far ahead. Settlement depends on the Observatory's finalised daily extract, published after the date passes.

Hong Kong's May temperatures typically range between 28°C and 33°C, with historical daily maxima clustering around 31–32°C during late spring. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either unwilling to commit without seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending nearer-term meteorological data. Comparable May dates from the past decade show occasional spikes above 34°C during heat waves, though such extremes remain outliers. The consensus avoidance of any probability band leaves room for value once May 2026 approaches and seasonal patterns become clearer through standard weather modelling.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal outlooks as spring 2026 approaches, typically issued three to six months in advance. El Niño or La Niña conditions, tracked by the Japan Meteorological Agency and reported through early 2026, will shape regional temperature anomalies. Tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific during May could suppress temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems would elevate them. The market cannot resolve until the Observatory publishes its finalised daily extract, creating a hard deadline at the settlement window close.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.