Highest temperature in Houston on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 July 2026, the William P. Hobby Airport station in Houston will record its peak daily temperature, which this market caps into discrete Fahrenheit ranges. Historical data shows mid-July in Houston typically sees highs between 77°F and 96°F, with the average hovering near 90°F [1]. Given the crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES outcome—likely tied to an unusually low range such as below 80°F—the consensus treats a cool day as virtually impossible. This aligns with climate norms where July is Houston’s hottest month, making contrarian bets on lower ranges appear valueless unless an extreme, unforecasted weather anomaly occurs.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for Houston, which updates daily and often flags heat advisories or unexpected cloud cover that could suppress temperatures. A recent NWS bulletin for the Gulf Coast region notes persistent high-pressure systems driving above-average heat through mid-July, reinforcing the likelihood of temperatures near or above 90°F [1]. With settlement ending just hours after the current time (2026-07-15T12:00:00Z), there is no room for late catalysts; the day’s weather is already locked in. The favourite is any range containing 90–95°F, while the underdog—any range below 85°F—offers no statistical value given the 0% market pricing and historical consistency.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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Do I need to KYC for this market?

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