Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25?

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Market context

The market is pricing zero probability that Istanbul's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will fall into whichever range the crowd has deemed most likely. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, with NOAA's Istanbul Airport station (LTFM) providing the official reading from the "Temp" column once all hourly data are finalised.

Istanbul's May temperatures typically range between 20–28°C, with historical records showing the airport station rarely exceeds 30°C in late May. The 0% implied probability suggests the market is either heavily concentrated on a single temperature band with no hedging, or traders are treating this as a binary outcome where one outcome dominates entirely. Comparable Turkish weather markets have shown that late-May temperatures in Istanbul cluster predictably around 24–26°C, making extreme readings (above 32°C or below 18°C) statistical outliers. The current pricing leaves substantial value in any range capturing typical seasonal conditions, particularly if the crowd has overcommitted to a narrow band.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting models from mid-May onwards, as the Eastern Mediterranean's spring patterns can shift with Saharan heat advection or Atlantic low-pressure systems. Turkey's meteorological service (TSMS) publishes extended forecasts that often diverge from consensus models 10–14 days out. Any significant heat dome or unseasonable cold snap affecting the Balkans or southern Europe in early May could signal directional movement, though such events remain difficult to predict with precision this far ahead.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.