Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Kuala Lumpur International Airport will determine which range this market settles into. The crowd is currently pricing all temperature brackets at 0% probability, suggesting either extreme uncertainty or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Kuala Lumpur's equatorial climate produces remarkably consistent daily maxima during mid-July, with historical records showing the airport station typically records highs between 32–34°C. The 0% crowd reading is unusual given the predictability of tropical temperatures at this location and time of year, indicating either a technical issue with market initialisation or genuine hesitation among traders to commit capital without clearer range definitions.

Historical data from Wunderground shows July temperatures at WMKK rarely deviate far from the 32–34°C band, with extreme outliers—either notably cooler days following heavy rainfall or hotter spells—occurring infrequently. The monsoon season patterns and typical afternoon convective activity shape daily maximums with considerable regularity. Traders should monitor the Malaysian Meteorological Department's forecasts in the weeks preceding the settlement date, particularly any alerts for unusual weather systems or extended dry spells that might push temperatures toward the upper end of the range. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 19 July, meaning the highest temperature recorded across the full calendar day will be the determining factor, not just afternoon readings.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.