Highest temperature in London on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

London’s highest temperature on 10 August is trading as a **heavy underdog** at a crowd-implied **0% YES**, so the market is effectively pricing in an outcome below the listed trigger bands. That leaves consensus firmly on the cooler side of the grid, with any upside in the pay-off coming from a late-day warm spell rather than an all-day heat event. AccuWeather’s August forecast for London has daily highs mostly in the upper 20s Celsius, with 10 August shown around the low 30s Fahrenheit? The broader monthly range still implies a summer-typical cap rather than a sustained extreme, and the key practical point is that settlement depends on the **London City Airport Station** reading in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, not the summary high. [1]

Historically, London can spike hard in August, but the big outliers are rare and usually tied to exceptional UK-wide heat episodes. The clearest comparable case is 10 August 2003, when London stations such as Kew Gardens and Heathrow reached the high 30s Celsius amid the record-breaking UK heatwave, showing that London can sit near the front line of national extremes when synoptic conditions align. More typical August maxima are much lower, and the market’s 0% pricing leaves little room for a surprise unless the day behaves like a mini heatwave rather than an ordinary summer afternoon. That makes the contrarian angle a very specific one: any trader looking for value is really betting on an unusually warm peak at the airport station, not just a decent city-centre afternoon. [4][10]

For catalysts, traders should watch the short-range London forecast, cloud cover, wind direction and any updated model runs through the morning and early afternoon, because those are what usually move an airport maximum temperature. The market description also matters operationally: if Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table is revised before settlement, that final table governs, so late data updates can matter more than a headline forecast. Recent reporting around London has pointed to warm summer conditions and highs in the low 30s Celsius on nearby dates, which supports the view that the favourite remains “moderate warmth” rather than a breakout heat extreme, but it also keeps a contrarian overshoot on the board if the airmass firms up. [5][19][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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