Highest temperature in London on June 10?

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Market context

The market seeks the single highest temperature reading at London City Airport on 10 June 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground historical data. The 0% implied probability across all temperature bands suggests either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient trading activity to establish consensus pricing.

London's June temperatures typically range between 18–24°C, with the airport station recording highs in the low-to-mid 20s during normal conditions. Historical precedent shows that June 10 specifically has seen readings between 19–23°C across recent decades, with occasional outliers reaching 25°C during warmer years. The current flat probability distribution indicates traders are treating this as genuinely uncertain rather than favouring any particular band, which is unusual for a weather market where seasonal norms typically anchor expectations.

The key variable is whether an Atlantic weather system or continental high-pressure system dominates the UK on that date. The UK Met Office's extended forecasts become more reliable from early June onwards, and any significant heat advisory or unusual weather pattern flagged in late May would shift the market materially. Recent years have shown increasing volatility in early summer temperatures, though June remains cooler than July and August. Traders should monitor late-May weather models and any Met Office seasonal outlooks released in the weeks prior to settlement, as these typically drive repricing in weather markets with this settlement window.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.