Highest temperature in London on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The settlement hinges on the peak temperature recorded at London City Airport on 11 June 2026. The crowd has priced this at 0% for all available ranges, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Wunderground's historical data for this station provides the sole resolution source, making past June performance at this location the primary reference point for calibration.

London City Airport's June temperatures typically range between 18–24°C, with highs occasionally reaching 25–27°C during warmer years. The 30-year average for mid-June maxima in central London sits around 21°C. Recent Junes have shown variability: June 2022 saw temperatures exceed 30°C during an exceptional heatwave, whilst June 2023 remained closer to seasonal norms. The 0% crowd reading suggests traders may be anchored to either a narrow range expectation or awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts before committing capital.

The UK Met Office typically releases extended forecasts 10–14 days ahead of the settlement date, with confidence improving substantially in the final week of May 2026. Traders should monitor late-May weather pattern announcements, particularly any signals regarding Atlantic blocking systems or continental air masses that could drive anomalous warmth. The airport's urban heat island effect—stronger than surrounding areas—may push recorded highs 1–2°C above rural comparables, a factor worth isolating when evaluating range probabilities against broader regional forecasts.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.