Highest temperature in London on June 13?

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Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 13 June 2026 at 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either a technical issue with the market setup or extreme confidence that no single range will materialise. London's June temperatures typically peak between 20–24°C, with occasional warm spells pushing into the mid-to-high 20s. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical data feed for the specific station, which records intraday highs with reasonable consistency, though data gaps or station maintenance occasionally create ambiguity around final readings.

Historical June weather at London City Airport shows a median high of approximately 21°C, with the warmest days on record reaching 28–29°C during heatwaves. The 2022 June heatwave, which saw temperatures exceed 30°C across southern England, provides a useful upper-bound reference. The crowd's zero probability reading is counterintuitive given that any weather outcome will produce a recorded high; this suggests either liquidity constraints, a display error, or that traders are waiting for the market to clarify its range definitions before committing capital.

The key variable is the Met Office's seasonal outlook for early summer 2026 and any Atlantic weather patterns that might drive warm continental air into the UK. Traders should monitor late May forecasting updates and any significant pressure system developments in the week preceding 13 June. The settlement window closes at midday on the day itself, leaving only morning observations to influence final positioning, which may explain cautious early trading.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.