Highest temperature in London on June 16?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 16 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will determine which range this market settles into. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular range or genuine uncertainty about which band will capture the day's peak reading.

London's June temperatures typically range between 18–24°C, with records showing highs occasionally reaching 28–30°C during warm spells. The 0% implied probability across all ranges is unusual and warrants scrutiny; it may reflect settlement mechanics rather than genuine forecasting consensus. Historical June data from the Met Office indicates that temperatures above 25°C occur roughly one year in three, whilst readings exceeding 30°C are rare but not unprecedented. The 1976 heatwave and more recent warm Junes (2018, 2022) demonstrate that outlier outcomes do materialise, yet the current market pricing suggests traders are either absent or waiting for clearer atmospheric signals.

The UK Met Office and European weather models will provide increasingly reliable forecasts as June approaches, with confidence intervals tightening significantly in the final week. Traders should monitor Atlantic pressure systems and any blocking highs that could drive continental air northward into the British Isles. Recent seasonal outlooks from the Met Office, published in May 2026, will offer guidance on whether June leans warmer or cooler than the 30-year average. The settlement window closes at noon on the day itself, meaning real-time weather updates and morning forecasts will be critical inputs for late positioning.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on June 16? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.