Highest temperature in London on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The settlement hinges on the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 26 May 2026, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's historical data for that specific station. The current crowd probability of 0% suggests traders are either awaiting range options or the market structure has not yet attracted substantive positioning.

May temperatures at London City Airport typically range between 15–22°C, with historical highs occasionally reaching 25–26°C during warm spells. The 0% implied probability reflects either missing range brackets in the current market interface or early-stage liquidity before traders commit capital. Comparable May days show that anomalously high readings (28°C+) occur roughly once per decade, making extreme heat scenarios genuinely rare rather than impossible. The consensus appears to be pricing out outlier scenarios, which may create value if late-spring weather patterns shift toward continental warmth.

Traders should monitor the UK Met Office's seasonal outlook for spring 2026 and any Atlantic pressure systems forecast for late May. High-pressure systems tracking from the south or east typically drive the warmest May days in London, whilst Atlantic lows suppress temperatures. The settlement window closes at midday on 26 May, meaning overnight lows are excluded from resolution. Early-season weather models become more reliable from mid-May onwards, so traders should reassess positioning once forecasts solidify within the final fortnight before settlement.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.