Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to identify which temperature range will capture the highest reading at Los Angeles International Airport on 14 August 2026, with resolution determined by Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome resolving YES, suggesting either a technical misunderstanding of the market mechanics or uncertainty about how the resolution source will function.

Los Angeles experiences relatively stable summer temperatures, with August highs typically ranging between 80–90°F at LAX, which sits near the coast and thus runs cooler than inland areas. Historical August data shows the airport rarely exceeds 95°F, with extreme heat events (above 100°F) occurring perhaps once per decade. The current 0% probability across all ranges appears disconnected from climatological norms, indicating the market may be pricing in confusion about whether the resolution source will actually report data or whether the specific Weather Underground table referenced will contain usable information by August 2026.

Traders should monitor whether Weather Underground maintains its Daily Observations table structure through 2026 and whether LAX station data remains consistently reported. The National Weather Service and local Los Angeles forecasts will provide advance guidance on expected conditions in mid-August 2026 as the date approaches. Any clarification from the market operator regarding the resolution methodology could shift pricing substantially, particularly if traders gain confidence that the specified data source will function as described. The disconnect between climatological likelihood and current pricing suggests significant value may exist once market participants resolve their doubts about the underlying data availability.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.