Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Los Angeles International Airport is the key reference point here, and the market is effectively pricing the highest temperature on 9 August into a single bin from Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table. The crowd has this at **0% YES**, which makes the listed outcome a deep underdog and suggests consensus is leaning hard towards a different temperature range, likely because the market has already absorbed the day’s observed readings and the resolution source is tightly defined.[3][16]

Historically, August in Los Angeles can swing from moderate marine-layer afternoons to sharp inland heat spikes, but the airport site is often less extreme than inland neighbourhoods, so traders should separate citywide heat headlines from the specific KLAX read. Comparable August weather records show plenty of low-90s potential across the basin, yet the airport itself can stay several degrees cooler, which is the main reason the favourite in this kind of contract tends to be a narrower band around the actual observed max rather than the broader “hot day” narrative.[2][7][15]

The main catalyst now is not a fresh forecast but the final sequence of official observation updates: Weather Underground’s daily table for KLAX, and any post-midnight revisions before the next day’s first datapoint. The market rules make the Daily Observations table primary over the Day High & Low summary, so any discrepancy matters, and the late publication of the next day’s first reading can lock the result.[3][10][13] That leaves only a slim contrarian angle if a trader believes the final table entry was lower or higher than the early consensus implied, but with the price already at zero, the value case sits almost entirely in whether the terminal bin was misread rather than in any weather surprise.[3][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.