Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The market seeks the single highest temperature reading at Los Angeles International Airport on 26 May 2026, resolved via Weather Underground historical data. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature band will occur or have not yet engaged with this specific date.

Los Angeles typically experiences late-spring temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s Fahrenheit during late May, with historical highs around 85–90°F at LAX. The airport's coastal location moderates extremes compared to inland areas; May 26 falls before the peak summer heating season. Comparable years show variability depending on whether marine layer influence persists or high-pressure systems dominate. The absence of trading activity (reflected in the 0% reading) likely reflects the market's distance from current date rather than fundamental uncertainty about May temperatures, which are relatively predictable within established seasonal ranges.

Traders should monitor late-April and early-May weather patterns for signals about whether a ridge of high pressure will establish itself by late May, potentially pushing readings toward the upper end of the typical range. The National Weather Service's extended outlooks, typically issued 8–14 days before the target date, will provide the most actionable guidance. Any unusual atmospheric setup—such as an early heat dome or persistent marine layer—would shift probability distributions meaningfully. Until those catalysts emerge closer to the resolution window, the market reflects baseline seasonal expectations rather than specific forecasted conditions.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.