Highest temperature in Manila on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature recorded at Manila's Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 17 August 2026 at 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either a technical issue with the market setup or extreme confidence that the settlement mechanism will fail to resolve. August sits squarely within Manila's southwest monsoon season, when afternoon highs typically range between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during particularly intense heat episodes. The 0% crowd probability is anomalous given that temperatures in this range occur reliably during the month.

Historical August data from the airport station shows that daily highs exceed 30°C in roughly 80% of observations, with readings above 32°C occurring in approximately 40% of cases. The most relevant comparable is August 2023, when the Philippines experienced a severe heat wave that pushed Manila's daily maxima above 34°C for extended periods. The current pricing suggests traders may be discounting the market entirely rather than distributing probability across realistic temperature bands.

Traders should monitor the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) seasonal forecasts, which typically issue updates in June and July. The resolution dependency on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary introduces a potential friction point; discrepancies between these datasets have occurred historically, though they are rare. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 17 August 2026, creating a narrow window for data verification after the airport station's final readings of the day.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.