Highest temperature in Manila on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Metro Manila’s heat record was shattered in April 2024 when the PAGASA station at Ninoy Aquino International Airport logged 38.8°C, the city’s highest ever [1]. Yet early July typically sees afternoon highs between 31°C and 35°C, with 32°C to 34°C being the most common range [8]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market believes a record-breaking spike is virtually impossible on this date, aligning with historical norms where July rarely approaches April’s extremes. The favourite is the lower temperature band; the underdog is any outlier exceeding 36°C, which has not occurred in Manila since the 2024 April peak [9].

Traders should monitor the PAGASA daily bulletins and Wunderground’s real-time updates for the RPLL station, as settlement hinges on the single highest reading recorded by 12:00Z [2]. A key catalyst is the onset of the southwest monsoon, which usually brings cloud cover and rain by mid-July, suppressing peak temperatures [7]. Recent data shows the highest temperature in the last 15 days was 94.8°F (35.0°C) on 3 July, while yesterday’s maximum was only 88°F (31.1°C) [2][4]. No extreme heat announcements are scheduled, and the absence of a strong heatwave signal reinforces the consensus that a 0% probability is well-founded, though contrarian value might exist if a sudden dry spell develops before settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Manila on July 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.