Highest temperature in Manila on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on the peak heat recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 30 June 2026, a date historically prone to intense tropical warmth. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the favoured high-temperature outcome, suggesting the consensus expects a cooler day, yet this may be a misread of Manila’s seasonal volatility.

Historical data frames this probability with caution: June highs in Manila typically range from 84°F to 95°F (30°C to 35°C), rarely dipping below 30°C [1]. Recent records show Metro Manila hit 38.8°C at this exact airport station in April 2024 [3], and 36.0°C was recorded just yesterday at NAIA [2]. Even in June 2026, a peak of 34.8°C occurred on 12 June [9], while 98.6°F (37°C) was logged on 17 June 2026 [4]. These cases indicate that a 0% implied probability ignores the airport’s proven capacity for extreme heat, making the high-temperature range a potential value spot for contrarian traders.

Traders should monitor PAGASA’s daily heat forecasts and any shifts in monsoon activity, as reduced cloud cover often spikes temperatures. The settlement relies solely on Wunderground’s highest recorded temperature for the day, so real-time station data is critical. Recent news from ABS-CBN confirms the airport’s role as the official record-keeper for Metro Manila’s hottest days [3], reinforcing that sudden heat spikes are plausible even in late June. With consensus leaning cool, the value likely sits in the high-temperature outcome, where the crowd’s 0% pricing may understate the airport’s historical extremes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.