Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Mexico City's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Benito Juárez International Airport, the official weather station for the capital. The crowd has assigned zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which temperature band will prevail or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. May represents late spring in Mexico City, typically characterised by warming trends ahead of the rainy season, with historical highs in the 28–32°C range during this period.

Historical data from the airport station shows May 25th temperatures have varied considerably year to year. Over the past two decades, highs on this date have ranged from approximately 24°C to 31°C, reflecting the variability of late-spring weather patterns in the capital. The absence of a dominant consensus—reflected in the zero probability reading—suggests the market lacks conviction about which temperature band is most likely. This creates potential value for traders with access to seasonal forecasts or historical trend analysis, particularly if they can identify whether 2026 is tracking toward an unusually warm or cool May.

The key dependency is the strength of high-pressure systems moving across central Mexico in late May and any early moisture from the approaching rainy season. Traders should monitor weather forecasts from late April onwards, as these will provide the most reliable signal for May 25th conditions. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the date itself, allowing only morning observations to influence final resolution, which may disadvantage traders relying on afternoon temperature peaks.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.