Highest temperature in Miami on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Miami International Airport on 13 August 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% implied probability reflects the market's current state rather than any meteorological certainty; this is a straightforward temperature-range resolution tied to a specific monitoring station's readings.

Miami's August climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that daily highs in mid-August typically cluster between 89–92°F, with readings above 95°F occurring in roughly 5–10% of years and extremes above 97°F exceptionally rare. The airport station's readings tend to align closely with these patterns, though urban heat effects and afternoon thunderstorm timing can create daily variance. August 2025 saw Miami peak at 91°F on the 13th; the preceding five years' mid-August highs ranged from 88–93°F, establishing a narrow historical band that should anchor expectations for 2026.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Atlantic hurricane season's progression and any significant upper-atmosphere patterns emerging in early August 2026. Tropical systems can suppress afternoon temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall, whilst high-pressure systems over the southeastern United States typically drive temperatures toward the upper range. The National Weather Service's extended forecasts become actionable roughly two weeks before the settlement date. Weather Underground's station maintenance schedules are also worth confirming; any sensor recalibration or downtime could affect the Daily Observations readings used for resolution.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Miami on August 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.