Highest temperature in Munich on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport’s highest temperature on 10 August is the contract’s real-world event, and the market is currently pricing **0% YES**, which leaves the **underdog** side carrying essentially all the implied probability. In other words, the consensus is that the day will *not* deliver a Munich Airport high in the specified temperature bucket, so any value on YES depends on an unusually warm intraday spike rather than a routine August outcome.

History argues against treating this as a pure long-shot. Munich’s August climate is warm but not extreme, with average daytime highs around 24–25 °C and a long-run August record high near 37–38 °C, so the distribution is wide enough that hot outliers are possible even if they are uncommon.[1][5][16] That said, the market is resolved from the highest reading in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, not the summary “Day High & Low” panel, so traders should focus on actual station observations rather than headline forecast displays.[3] With settlement tied to Munich Airport Station, the key handicapper’s read is that 0% may be too aggressive if a late-morning warm-up, föhn-style drying, or a brief clear-sky burst pushes the daily maximum up faster than models imply.

The main catalysts are the day’s weather evolution and any updated short-range forecasts for Munich Airport, especially if cloud cover clears earlier than expected or rainfall suppresses the ceiling less than the market assumes. AccuWeather’s current Munich outlook shows a materially warmer forecast than the monthly norm, which is the sort of setup that can keep contrarian YES interest alive even from a near-zero price.[2][6][17] Watch the actual Weather Underground observations through the late morning UTC window, because the settlement cut-off is before midday UTC and the day’s high can be set early if sunshine arrives quickly.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.