Highest temperature in Munich on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich's highest temperature on 21 August 2026 will be recorded at the airport weather station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either a technical issue with the market setup or genuine uncertainty about which specific band will capture the day's peak reading.

August in Munich typically sees daily highs between 23–27°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 30°C or beyond during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows that late August temperatures at Munich Airport rarely exceed 28°C, though the summer of 2022 produced several days above 30°C across Bavaria. The 0% crowd reading across all ranges is unusual and likely reflects traders waiting for more granular information about the available temperature bands rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded. This creates a value opportunity for those confident in typical late-summer conditions.

The German meteorological service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) issues seasonal forecasts in early summer, with updated outlooks available through July. El Niño and Atlantic oscillation patterns influence European summer temperatures, and any significant heat dome tracking towards Central Europe in early August would be the primary catalyst reshaping expectations. Traders should monitor European weather models from mid-August onwards, as the 10-day forecast window will provide reliable guidance on whether Munich experiences typical conditions or anomalous heat.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Munich on August 21? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.