Highest temperature in Munich on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature recorded at Munich Airport on 24 July 2026 at 0% for any given range, suggesting the crowd has not yet engaged with this weather settlement. Munich's July climate typically produces daily highs between 23–27°C, with occasional peaks above 28°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability reflects early-stage liquidity rather than a forecast consensus; traders have not yet staked positions across the available temperature bands.

Historical July data from Munich Airport shows considerable year-to-year variation. The past decade includes July days reaching 30°C or higher roughly once every two to three summers, whilst cooler Julys see maxima closer to 22–24°C. The European summer of 2023 saw Munich record 28.5°C on 24 July specifically, providing a recent comparable. Current seasonal forecasting models, updated through June 2026, will be the primary driver of where informed traders anchor their positions once liquidity develops.

The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's Munich Airport Station readings, which record official meteorological data. Traders should monitor European weather pattern forecasts from late June onwards, particularly Atlantic pressure systems and any developing heat domes over central Europe. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) publishes extended outlooks that typically gain reliability two to three weeks before the target date. Early market movers will likely establish positions based on seasonal climatology before more precise forecasts become available in early July.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.