Highest temperature in NYC on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to identify whether the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 10 August 2026 will exceed a specific threshold. The crowd currently assigns just 2% probability to a YES resolution, implying consensus expectation of a cooler-than-threshold day at the station.

New York's August heat patterns show considerable year-to-year variation, though extreme peaks remain uncommon. Historical data from LaGuardia indicates that temperatures exceeding 95°F occur in roughly 15–20% of August days across typical decades, whilst readings above 100°F are rare events concentrated in heat waves. The 2% implied probability suggests the market is pricing in either a notably cool August day or a threshold set well above typical August highs. For context, the National Weather Service's 30-year normals place the average August high at LaGuardia around 82°F, with the median daily maximum considerably below 90°F. This positioning leaves potential value for traders holding contrarian views on either the specific threshold or the likelihood of an anomalous heat event.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather patterns as August 2026 approaches, particularly any signals from extended-range forecasts issued in late July. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center typically releases outlooks 2–3 weeks ahead that flag above or below-normal temperature probabilities across the Northeast. Any developing heat dome or ridge of high pressure over the eastern seaboard in early August could shift expectations materially. The resolution hinges entirely on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at LaGuardia, making data quality and station continuity relevant considerations for settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

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Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

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How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

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