Highest temperature in NYC on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to identify which temperature range will contain the highest reading at LaGuardia Airport on 11 August 2026, with resolution based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any specific outcome, suggesting either extreme uncertainty or a technical issue with market initialisation.

August temperatures at LaGuardia typically peak between 82–88°F, with historical data showing that readings above 90°F occur roughly once every three to four years during the summer months. The 30-year average high for mid-August sits around 84°F. Extreme heat events pushing into the mid-90s are plausible but require specific atmospheric conditions—sustained high pressure systems or tropical moisture influx—that materialise infrequently. The zero probability reading appears disconnected from seasonal climatology, suggesting the market may not yet reflect baseline expectations for a summer day in New York.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts and Climate Prediction Center outlooks as August 2026 approaches, particularly any signals regarding heat dome formation or anomalous ridge positioning over the eastern seaboard. The resolution methodology's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than official NWS records introduces a minor dependency worth tracking, though historical discrepancies between the two sources are typically negligible. Early-season weather pattern development in July 2026 will provide the first meaningful signal regarding whether August 11 falls within a cooler or warmer-than-normal period.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.