Highest temperature in NYC on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market prices the likelihood of New York City recording a peak temperature within a specific range on 13 August 2026 at zero per cent, suggesting the crowd views one or more temperature brackets as implausible. August temperatures at LaGuardia Airport typically range from 75°F to 88°F, with historical highs occasionally reaching the low 90s during heat waves. The 0% implied probability across all outcomes indicates either a data input error, an extremely narrow settlement window, or crowd uncertainty about which single range will capture the day's maximum reading.

New York's August climate patterns show considerable year-to-year variation. The National Weather Service records from 2015 to 2024 reveal August highs at LaGuardia ranging between 73°F and 95°F, with most days clustering between 80°F and 87°F. The 2022 heat dome pushed temperatures to 95°F on multiple August days, whilst cooler Augusts have seen highs remain in the mid-70s. This historical spread suggests several temperature brackets should carry meaningful probability mass rather than zero.

The critical dependency here is the resolution methodology: Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary section. This distinction matters because automated weather stations can record different peak temperatures depending on measurement timing and methodology. Traders should verify which specific temperature brackets the market offers before committing capital, as the 0% pricing likely reflects confusion about available outcomes rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded on that date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.