Highest temperature in NYC on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to identify the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 14 August 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or uncertainty about the resolution mechanics. August temperatures at LaGuardia typically peak between 82–88°F, with historical data showing that extreme heat days (above 95°F) occur roughly once per decade during mid-August. The 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges appears misaligned with the certainty that some temperature will be recorded on that date, indicating a potential arbitrage opportunity for traders willing to back the most statistically probable outcomes.

New York's summer weather patterns depend heavily on Atlantic tropical systems and continental high-pressure positioning in mid-August. The National Weather Service's seasonal outlooks, updated monthly through spring and early summer 2026, will provide the first substantive signals about whether August leans toward typical conditions or anomalous heat. Traders should monitor the Climate Prediction Center's monthly and seasonal forecasts released in June and July 2026, as well as any El Niño or La Niña developments that influence North American ridge positioning. Historical precedent suggests that consensus forecasts issued 6–8 weeks ahead of mid-August carry meaningful predictive value, though day-to-day variability remains substantial. The resolution source's reliance on LaGuardia's official station data means that local microclimatic factors and instrument calibration remain fixed variables, removing one layer of uncertainty present in markets using multiple weather stations.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on August 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.