Highest temperature in NYC on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 16 August 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome occurring, which reflects the market's distance in time rather than genuine uncertainty about whether temperatures will be recorded that day.

August in New York typically sees daily highs between 27°C and 32°C (80–90°F), though heat waves can push readings into the mid-30s Celsius. Historical precedent suggests the most probable outcomes cluster around typical summer ranges; extreme temperatures above 38°C (100°F) occur roughly once per decade in the region, whilst readings below 21°C (70°F) are uncommon but possible during cooler weather systems. The 0% crowd probability reflects standard betting practice for events two years distant rather than any genuine forecast that temperatures won't be recorded.

Traders should monitor seasonal climate patterns as August 2026 approaches, particularly whether Atlantic hurricane activity or high-pressure systems are forecast for that specific week. The National Weather Service's extended outlooks, typically issued 8–14 days before the target date, will provide the first concrete directional signals. Resolution hinges entirely on Weather Underground's Daily Observations data from LaGuardia, making source verification critical; any discrepancies between that table and the Day High & Low summary will favour the Daily Observations figure per market rules.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on August 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.