Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia Airport’s highest reading on 7 August 2026 is the key figure here, and the market’s crowd-implied **0% YES** says traders are effectively pricing the outcome as already closed against the relevant temperature bin. In handicapper terms, that makes the favourite the *no/other-bin* side, with any positive-temperature surprise needing to land in the exact settlement range to upset consensus; the value, if any, sits only in a contrarian view that the official Daily Observations table can print a higher max than traders have assumed from live forecast chatter. Weather Underground’s history page for New York City is the designated resolution source, but the market description explicitly gives the Daily Observations table priority over the Day High & Low summary, so the final print matters more than headline forecasts.[4]

Comparable late-summer NYC temperature markets usually hinge on whether the afternoon peak clears the lower 90s or stalls in the high 80s, which is why nearby bins tend to absorb most of the liquidity. On this contract, Polymarket’s own market page showed 90–91°F as the leading bucket at 37%, ahead of 88–89°F at 28%, a shape that implies consensus was clustered around a warm but not extreme day rather than a breakout heat spike.[3] With the market now showing 0% YES, the contrarian angle is not “will it get hot?”, but whether the observed airport maximum can land in the precise settlement band despite broader expectations being priced elsewhere.[3]

Traders should watch the final Weather Underground station record rather than generic city forecasts, because airport observations can diverge from Central Park-style city averages, especially if a sea breeze or cloud timing trims the peak.[4][8] Any late-day convective development, smoke, or coastal wind shift would matter only insofar as it changes the recorded maximum before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, after which the daily observation should be fixed in the historical table.[4] For context, nearby forecast products had been pointing to a low-to-mid 80s reading for New York around that date, which would have favoured the lower bins and made the market’s leading 90s pricing more of a weather-sensitive upside call than a base case.[2][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.