Highest temperature in NYC on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia on 9 August sits in a market already priced as a near-lock, with the crowd-implied probability at **0% YES** on the opposite side of the book. That makes **90–91°F** the clear favourite and leaves the rest of the range buckets as deep underdogs; the main handicapper’s question is not whether the day was warm, but whether the final observed peak landed close enough to nudge the reading into an adjacent band. Weather Underground’s latest Manhattan/LGA report showed **88.0°F** at 1:51 pm local time, with a 6-hour high of **89.1°F**, which is consistent with the market’s consensus that the upper 80s to low 90s was the live zone. [1][4]

Historically, late-summer New York City highs often cluster tightly around the low-to-mid 80s, but the market is already assuming a hotter-than-normal outcome, which is why the favourite is so compressed. AccuWeather’s monthly outlook for New York had **90°F** listed for 9 August, reinforcing the idea that the consensus leaned towards a warm finish rather than a miss into the 80–89°F bands. That said, a single cloud burst, sea-breeze shift, or earlier-than-expected afternoon plateau can still leave value in contrarian slices of the distribution if the observed maximum stalls just under the headline forecast. [2][14]

For traders, the catalysts are mostly observational rather than event-driven: the key is the final Weather Underground Daily Observations entry for LaGuardia, because that is the settlement source, not the summary high/low panel. The National Weather Service’s public forecast products for New York and the OKX briefing materials matter only insofar as they signal whether the day had a strong warming trend or a cap from marine influence; after the fact, the market should hinge on the precise timestamped maximum rather than forecast headlines. With the book already priced as if the main outcome is settled, the remaining value is usually in the tails, especially if late-day readings plateaued below the forecast peak. [3][5][10][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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