Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the LaGuardia Airport Station will record its highest temperature for the day, a real-world event that determines the outcome of this prediction market. The crowd-implied probability for the YES outcome sits at 0%, reflecting a consensus that the temperature will not reach the specified threshold. This near-total dismissal suggests the market views the target as an extreme outlier, yet historical data reveals that July in New York City frequently produces highs well into the 80s and 90s, with the all-time record for LaGuardia standing at 107°F on 3 July 1966[4]. The average high for July typically ranges from 81°F to 99°F, meaning temperatures capable of triggering the market are not merely theoretical but part of the seasonal norm[1].

Traders should monitor the daily climatological reports issued by the National Weather Service for LaGuardia, as these provide the definitive temperature readings that will settle the market[2]. Recent forecasts indicate a steady temperature around 91°F with heat index values reaching 99, suggesting conditions are conducive to high temperatures[7]. While the current consensus leans heavily against the YES outcome, the value spot may lie in contrarian positions if a sudden heatwave develops, as the historical record demonstrates that extreme highs are possible in early July. The settlement window ends on 1 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, and the resolution source will be the highest temperature recorded by Weather Underground for all times on that day[3]. Any deviation from the forecasted 80s range, as hinted in recent weather updates, could shift the probability dynamics significantly[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.