Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently enduring an unprecedented July 2026 heatwave, with LaGuardia Airport smashing its all-time record by hitting 104°F on 3 July, three degrees above the 1966 peak. This extreme event has left the region with persistent high dew points in the 70s and midnight temperatures that have not dropped below 94°F, creating a thermal baseline far hotter than any historical July average for the city [1][2][7].

Despite this active reality, the market for 10 July 2026 shows a crowd-implied probability of 0% for any temperature outcome, suggesting the consensus has completely dismissed the likelihood of summer heat persisting. This represents a massive contrarian value spot; if the current heat dome remains stable, the favourite is clearly the upper temperature ranges, yet the underdog (any heat) is priced as impossible. Historical data from the 1966 heatwave and the current 2026 anomaly confirm that once such a system locks in, it rarely breaks without a significant weather front, which has not been forecast [1][9].

Traders must monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly updates for LaGuardia and any incoming low-pressure systems that could disrupt the stagnant high-pressure ridge. The settlement depends entirely on the Wunderground record for KLGA, and given the recent 107°F reading at LaGuardia cited in some reports alongside the 104°F official record, the threshold for a “hot” day is already shattered [1][9]. With dew points remaining elevated and no cooling rain expected, the value lies in betting against the 0% pricing, as the physical conditions strongly favour temperatures well above freezing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.